全球石油需求2020年或出现意外的上行趋势

据1月19日Financial Tribune报道，全球石油需求预测可能会低于往年，但欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德巴金多（Mohammed Barkindo）表示，随着贸易紧张局势的缓和，原油需求增长仍然“强劲”，并可能在2020年期间出现意外的上行趋势。

巴金多表示：“总的来说，需求方面的增长潜力是上行的，这将影响今年剩余时间内的供需平衡，希望我们在国际贸易方面面临的一些挑战能够得到解决。”

2019年石油价格上涨近35%，但仍远低于此前高位。部分原因是美国页岩油产量激增，巴金多指出，这是欧佩克减产决定中的“主要变数”。

去年12月，欧佩克+同意在2020年第一季度每天额外减产50万桶。这将总减产量提升至170万桶/天，高于2018年12月达成的120万桶/天的减产配额。

欧佩克最大产油国沙特阿拉伯表示，将继续自愿减产40万桶/天，促使欧佩克的石油减产总量达到210万桶/天。

摘译自 Financial Tribune

原文如下：

OPEC Secretary General: Oil Demand Has Upside Potential

Worldwide oil demand forecasts may be lower than in previous years, but OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said Friday to CNBC that demand growth is still “robust” and could surprise to the upside over the course of 2020 as trade tensions subside.

“By and large what we see from our side is an upside potential of growth from the demand side of the equation, which will affect the total balance for the rest of the year,” he said. “We are hoping that some of the challenges that we’re facing in terms of international trade will be addressed.”

Oil finished 2019 with a nearly 35% gain, but prices remain well below their prior highs. Part of this is due to the shale production surge in the United States, which Barkindo said is a “major variable” in OPEC’s decisions.

In December OPEC+, which is the 14-member cartel as well as its allies, agreed to cut production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day for the first quarter of 2020. This lifted total production cuts to 1.7 million bpd, above the 1.2 million bpd cut agreed upon in December 2018.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, also said that it would continue its voluntary cut of 400,000 bpd, effectively bringing the alliance’s total cut to 2.1 million bpd.